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BOND SUMMARY: EGBs/GILTs: It is slightly risk off heading into today's ECB
meeting where consensus expects no major change in policy.
- Among the minority of analysts expecting a change in policy, an expansion to
the PEPP is the most likely outcome.
- Data published this morning reveal a deeper than expected economic contraction
during the first quarter for France and Spain while the change in the level of
German unemployment in April similarly smashed through expectations.
- Bunds are bid with yields 2-3bp lower and the curve bull flattening. The 2s10s
spread has traded down 2bp.
- OAT yields are 1-3bp lower. Current yield levels: 2-year -0.621%, 5-year
-0.421%, 10-year -0.076%, 30-year 0.621%.
- BTPs have sold off with yields 3-4bp higher on the day. The Jun-20 BTP future
trades at 138.44, 42 ticks off the low.
- Gilts have rallied with the very long-end outperforming.