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EGBS: Higher-than-expected June Core Inflation Keeps Pressure On EGBs
Downward pressure in major EGB futures has persisted after Eurozone flash June core inflation was a tenth above consensus on a rounded basis at 2.9%.
- However, the “low” unrounded core print (at 2.86%) has likely limited downside moves, alongside recent ECB-speak from Sintra downplaying the importance of individual data points and acknowledging the bumpiness of monthly inflation readings.
- OAT and BTP futures are both close to intraday lows and were already underperforming before the inflation release, amid a broad risk-off tone across global markets (stronger USD, weaker European equity futures).
- Bunds are +2 at 130.43. Yesterday’s sell-off undermined a recent bullish theme and signalled scope for a deeper retracement. First support lies at 130.28.
- EGB curves have generally steepened, while 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are wider as a result of the risk environment.
- The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is ~3bps wider at ~153bps, with today’s Q1 fiscal data (debt/GDP at 8.8% vs 7.4% prior) likely also factoring in.
- The remainder of today’s regional calendar centres on ECB-speak from the Sintra forum, while US job openings headline across the Atlantic.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.