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EGBS: Pressured By Higher Oil, Germany Ifo Doesn’t Move A Weak Needle

EGBS
  • Whilst fractionally off lows, EGBs hold most of the sell off since pressure from crude oil pushing higher on the Libyan force majeure. 
  • EGBs continue to underperform Treasuries, with the latter seeing haven flow since the weekend exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, and with both sides warning they could strike again.
  • German 10Y yields pushed to 2.263% to nudge above pre-Powell levels on Friday, levels it has struggled to hold above since Aug 8, before dipping to 2.258% (+3.5bp) 
  • No real standouts across major European countries in 10Y space (Italy underperforming modestly with +4.1bp). 
  • The EuroStoxx 50 retracing earlier losses helps see peripheral spreads little changed on the day with BTP-Bund at 134.8bps (+0.6bp) and Oat-Bund at 70.6bps (-0.1bp). The former is the lowest since late July but remains above the sub-50bps seen prior to June’s political breakdown.  
  • In data, the German Ifo survey offered a small beat but nevertheless saw further deterioration whilst there is greater focus on tomorrow’s final German Q2 GDP release before European preliminary August CPI readings on Thu/Fri. 
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