Egypt’s LNG Exports to Europe Could Dry Up This Winter

Egypt’s LNG exports could be restricted this winter, tightening supply availability in Europe, according to IEA Gas Analyst Greg Molnar via LinkedIn.

• Egypt has hampered hit by issues in local upstream gas production, especially from ageing gas fields. Domestic gas production Jan-Aug fell 10% on the year, a fall of 4.5 bcm.
• Falling production had been compensated by increased flows from Israeli gas fields, which added 2 bcm to Egypt’s gas supply in Jan-Aug.
• However, since the Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent conflict which closed the 10 bcm/y Tamar gas field, Israel’s gas production has dropped by 0.8 bcm, around 40%, while Israel-Egypt piped flows are down a larger 70-80% compared to Jan-Aug average.
• Argus estimates showed that, Israel would be able to send only about 2.6bcm/y to Egypt as long as the 10 bcm/y Tamar field remains shut — about 3.7bcm/y down from 2022.
• Last winter, LNG imports from Egypt into Europe and Turkey were around 3.4m tonnes (4.6bcm), 5% of the region’s total winter supply, according to Kpler data.