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EIA Forecast 5% Decline in US Natural Gas Demand in 1Q23

NATGAS

US natural gas consumption is forecast to fall 5% from 1Q22 to average 99.1bcf/d in 1Q23 according to the EIA short term energy report released yesterday. The decline is driven by very mild temperatures with the largest decline of 11% in residential and commercial consumption. They expect 2.4% (2 Bcf/d) less US natural gas consumption in 2023 than in 2022.

  • US will close the withdrawal season at the end of March with more than 1.9tcf of natural gas in storage, 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than forecast in the January STEO.
  • US dry natural gas production is estimated up from the Feb report to 100.67bcf/day in 2023 and 101.69 bcf/day in 2024.
  • They expect natural gas prices to increase in the coming months although have reduced the Henry Hub price forecast from the Feb report. Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average about $3/MMBtu in 2023, down from almost $5/MMBtu in the January STEO forecast and down by more than 50% from last year.
  • US LNG exports are forecast up 14% from last year to about 12 Bcf/d in 2023 with an additional 5% increase expected in 2024.

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