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Free AccessEIA Forecast 5% Decline in US Natural Gas Demand in 1Q23
US natural gas consumption is forecast to fall 5% from 1Q22 to average 99.1bcf/d in 1Q23 according to the EIA short term energy report released yesterday. The decline is driven by very mild temperatures with the largest decline of 11% in residential and commercial consumption. They expect 2.4% (2 Bcf/d) less US natural gas consumption in 2023 than in 2022.
- US will close the withdrawal season at the end of March with more than 1.9tcf of natural gas in storage, 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than forecast in the January STEO.
- US dry natural gas production is estimated up from the Feb report to 100.67bcf/day in 2023 and 101.69 bcf/day in 2024.
- They expect natural gas prices to increase in the coming months although have reduced the Henry Hub price forecast from the Feb report. Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average about $3/MMBtu in 2023, down from almost $5/MMBtu in the January STEO forecast and down by more than 50% from last year.
- US LNG exports are forecast up 14% from last year to about 12 Bcf/d in 2023 with an additional 5% increase expected in 2024.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.