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EIA Increase 2023 Brent-WTI Spread to 6$/bbl

OIL

EIA forecast a wider WTI-Brent spread compared to last month’s forecast

  • Global crude oil trade patterns have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They expect that these shifts will continue as the EU reduces crude oil imports from Russia by the end of the day.
  • The Brent-WTI spread has averaged 6.73$/bbl since March, up from 2.69$/bbl in 2021. They expect a fall from the July 2022 average of 10.31$/bbl to 6.00$/bbl in 2023, an increase on the July forecast of 4.00$/bbl.
  • They say crude oil price spreads reflect several factors, such as:
    • The logistical cost of moving crude oil from a producing region to a destination
    • Planned or unplanned production outages
    • Local storage, distribution, or other infrastructure constraints
    • Changes in demand for certain grades of crude oil because of their quality and yield

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EIA forecast a wider WTI-Brent spread compared to last month’s forecast

  • Global crude oil trade patterns have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They expect that these shifts will continue as the EU reduces crude oil imports from Russia by the end of the day.
  • The Brent-WTI spread has averaged 6.73$/bbl since March, up from 2.69$/bbl in 2021. They expect a fall from the July 2022 average of 10.31$/bbl to 6.00$/bbl in 2023, an increase on the July forecast of 4.00$/bbl.
  • They say crude oil price spreads reflect several factors, such as:
    • The logistical cost of moving crude oil from a producing region to a destination
    • Planned or unplanned production outages
    • Local storage, distribution, or other infrastructure constraints
    • Changes in demand for certain grades of crude oil because of their quality and yield