EIA Inventories Preview - Markets Expect 2.2mln Draw

The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 EST (15:30 BST) this afternoon

• After a -3.45m draw last week a Bloomberg survey suggests a small draw in crude of -2.2mbbl again this week.
• Crude stocks are below levels seen for this time of year in the past 5 years and any further draws are likely to put even more pressure on an already tight market.
• Gasoline is expected to draw by -0.2mbbl and distillate by -0.6mbbls
• Refinery utilization is expected to rise 0.3% as refineries continue to return from maintenance and look to increase runs with such tight product markets. Record high refining margins are encouraging runs but refiners are facing a challenge to balance after maximising diesel production at the expense of other oils such as jet fuel.
• Counter to expectations last night’s API data showed a build in crude of 1.08mbbls. Stocks at Cushing showed a 1.79mbbls build from very low levels for this time of year. API data had a -0.54mbbls draw in gasoline and a 0.59mbbls build in distillates.
• Crude withdrawals are likely to continue from SPRs as US continues to release stocks in line with their IEA agreement to release 30mbbl from 1 Mar and ahead of the commitment to release 1mbpd starting in May.
• The Brent-WTI spread is likely to keep crude exports high.
• Product imports to US may show a reduction again. European product markets remain especially tight resulting in fewer cargoes seen heading across the Atlantic to US.