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EIA Lowered Brent Price Forecast For 2023 To 83$/bbl

OIL

EIA lower their forecast for the 2023 average Brent price to 83$/bbl down from the previous estimate of 92$/bbl, as global inventories build, according to the EIA January STEO report.

  • Brent prices are forecast to average 78$/bbl in 2024.
  • EIA forecast that the US and other non-OPEC producers outside of Russia will add 2.4mbpd of oil production in 2023 and an additional 1.1mbpd in 2024, accounting for 40% and 60% of non-OPEC production growth in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • Most of Russian crude oil exports are expected to continue to find buyers. But the sanctions on petroleum products are expected to cause greater disruptions to Russia’s oil production and exports because finding alternative buyers as well as transportation and other services to reach those buyers is likely to be more challenging than for crude oil.
  • Russia’s petroleum and other liquid fuels production are forecast to decline to 9.5mbpd in 2023, from 10.9mbpd in 2022, and then average 9.4mbpd in 2024.

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