EIA OIL INVENTORY PREVIEW:  Crude, Gasoline Stocks Expected To Draw

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The day delayed EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by -1.27mbbls for the week ending May 26 according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories showed an unexpected large draw with a big fall in imports and fall in the oil adjustment to more than offset the build seen the previous week. The draw was despite higher production and strong exports while refinery utilisation dipped against market expectations. US Gulf Coast stocks fell by the most on record at 11.4mbbls last week. The WTI-Brent spread has seen volatile trading in the last week bouncing between about -4.4$/bbl and -3.7$/bbl. Cushing stocks have seen a recovery in recent weeks up to the highest since early March.
• Refinery utilisation is expected to resume its trend higher with a Bloomberg survey suggesting an increase of +0.62% to 92.3% following the unexpected fall last week.
• Gasoline stocks are expected to show a draw of -0.62mbbls and distillates a small build of +0.56mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks drew with an increase in exports but shipments of gasoline from Europe to the US fell in the week to 25 May from a high the previous week according to ship tracking data. The transatlantic diesel arbitrage shut last week due to rising shipping costs according to Bloomberg due to a spike in diesel exports partly due to maintenance at the Panama Canal. Distillates stocks in Midwest drop to the lowest since Dec 2020 last week with an increase in demand offsetting a fall in exports.
• EIA implied demand data last week showed a boost ahead of the holiday weekend with weekly gasoline demand up 6% and distillates up 12%. GasBuddy data saw a further gasoline demand increase last week although the data suggested Memorial Day weekend gasoline demand was down 1.1% from 2022.
• The API data released last night showed crude stocks of +5.202mbbls build with 1.777mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of +1.891mbbls and distillates a build of +1.849mbbls.