EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Build Expected with Refinery Rates Low

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT) today. The data was delayed by a day due to the US national holiday on Feb. 19.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a build of +4.04mbbl for the week ending Feb. 16, according to a Bloomberg survey. The US weekly petroleum data has been volatile since the severe cold weather disruption in January with crude inventories last week building more than expected amid low refinery run rates. Crude production was last week holding at record levels while the data showed a significant positive adjustment.
• Refinery utilisation last week fell for the sixth straight week to the lowest since Dec 2022 as key refineries struggle to return from outages in Jan. Gulf Coast utilisation recovered slightly but was still well below seasonal normal levels at 79.7%. BP’s Whiting refinery is expected to return to full production in March while the TotalEnergies Port Arthur refinery is operating at minimal production as it works to complete a restart. Refinery utilisation is expected to recover some ground with an increase of 0.52% on the week according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by -2.88mbbl and distillates to draw by -1.53mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline and distillates stocks drew last week amid low refinery runs and despite a drop in demand. Combined demand for gasoline, distillates and jet fuel fell in the week to the lowest seasonal level since 2012 except for 2021. The four week implied gasoline demand figure showed a counter seasonal fall after the gains seen the previous week and the four week distillates average was below the previous five year range for the time of year.
• US average gasoline prices have risen for the fourth straight week as demand saw an increase of 0.7% for the week ending Feb. 18 at around 8.381m b/d according to GasBuddy. Focus for further price gains will be driven by how quickly and effectively refiners can finish their pre-summer maintenance and start producing EPA-mandated summer gasoline before Memorial Day according to Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy.
• The API data released last night showed a large crude build of +7.17mbbl, with a build of 0.668mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a small build of +0.415mbbl while distillates stocks fell by -2.908mbbl.