EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Build, Product Draws Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.31mbbls for the week ending April 19, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks saw an above-expected increase in the week to April 12 taking stocks up to the highest since June. Much of the increase was driven by the Gulf Coast despite a rise in exports compared to the previous week. Domestic production has remained unchanged at 13.1mb/d since early March. Weekly crude export data has been volatile in recent weeks but the four week average is the lowest since July 2023 and remains in focus as refiners ramp up operations following maintenance.
• Refinery runs last week fell by 0.2% counter to an expected increase of 0.56% in the week. EIA increased the refinery operable capacity by 81kbbls to 18.4mbbls with adjustments for all PADD regions except the East Coast. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to resume the recovery with an increase by 0.55% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 1.44mbbl and distillates to draw by 1.75mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Distillate stocks last week saw a strong draw on the week, with a rise in weekly distillate demand while production fell slightly on the week. Four week average implied demand however fell again to stay at the low end of the previous five year range. The soft US demand has been weighing on diesel cracks falling to the lowest since June 2023 this week.
• Gasoline inventories are expected to continue the declining trend after another fall last week with a small pick-up in implied demand, while production, imports, and exports all declined week on week. Four week implied demand has edged slightly lower in recent weeks but remains above the previous five year average after the gains seen during Q1. US gasoline demand rose 1.4% last week to the second highest weekly figure of the year as demand grows towards the summer driving season according to GasBuddy data. Demand was up 0.94% above the four-week average at 8.82mbpd. The Biden Administration is using emergency powers to allow widespread sales of E15 gasoline this summer as done in the last two years.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of 3.23mbbl with a draw of 0.898mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 0.595mbbl and distillates stocks a build by 0.724mbbl.