EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw Expected Counter to API Build

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00ET (16:00BST) today. The data is a day delayed due to the US holiday yesterday.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.98mbbls for the week ending June 14, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks last week built driven by the highest imports since 2018 and exports of just 3.19mbbls but this coincided with a significant adjustment figure. US production showed the first increase since March up to 13.2mb/d and refinery runs remained high up at 95%. US oil refineries have been processing oil at the fastest seasonal rate since the pandemic and could be trying to boost inventories ahead of an expected active Atlantic hurricane season. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to dip slightly this week by 0.1% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to build by 0.62mbbl and distillates to build by 0.71mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week built with an increase in production and imports. US gasoline stockpiles are the highest seasonally since 2021, rising by 5.7mbbl since the start of April. Implied demand will be in focus again after the increasing trend seen in May appears to have stalled in recent weeks. US retail gasoline demand saw a drop of 1.5% for the week ending June 15 to 8.79mb/d and was 1.1% below the four week average, according to GasBuddy. OPIS modelled demand last week at around 9mb/d.
• Distillates stocks last week also showed a small build as expected but are still 7.2% below normal. Four week implied demand has pulled back slightly in the last couple of weeks to reverse some of the gains seen during late April and May.
• The API data released on June 18 showed a crude build of 2.26mbbl with a build of 0.524mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 1.077mbbl and distillates stocks a build of 0.538mbbl.