EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw Expected with Rise in Refinery Runs

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 2.50mbbls for the week ending April 26, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks last week fell more than expected driven by the Gulf Coast region due to strong exports and helped by an increase in refinery runs as facilities return from maintenance. Crude production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd while the week showed a large 909kbpd adjustment figure. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to increase by 0.50% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey which would take the rate to its highest since before the cold weather disruption in mid-January.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 1.44mbbl and distillates to draw by 1.75mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Diesel stocks built last week as the four-week implied demand fell again to the lowest since the week ended Jan 19. US exports of diesel to Europe look set to reach 296kb/d in April boosted by increased refinery runs in the USGC, according to BNEF.
• Gasoline stocks on the East Coast are the lowest since November ahead of a tight summer driving season but implied demand last week dipped again - back below 2022 levels for the first time since early March. US gasoline cracks have eased back after reaching a high of over $32.5/bbl on April 29. GasBuddy data showed a 0.5% drop in US gasoline demand last week to 8.794mb/d for the week to April 27. Initial data from OPIS also points toward another subpar week with consumption around 8.5mb/d or less. US gasoline demand looks to have settled into a “new normal” seasonal trend with consumer behaviour altered since the pandemic, according to BNEF.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of 4.91mbbl with a build of 1.48mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 1.48mbbl and distillates stocks a draw by 2.19mbbl.