EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of 0.73mbbl for the week ending Mar. 15, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories last week showed the first draw in seven weeks driven by another drop in production to 13.1mbpd and with a larger than expected rise in refinery runs. Both imports and exports showed large declines on the week. Refinery utilisation recovered for a third week as units return from outages. Rates in the Midwest should recover further with the return of the BP Whiting refinery. Overall utilisation was the highest since January 12 last week at 86.8% and is expected to increase again by 0.70% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 2.34mbbl and distillates to draw by 0.27mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks drew more than expected last week with higher exports and a small increase in implied demand offsetting an increase in production. Four-week implied demand rose faster than the seasonal trend back closer towards the previous five-year average. US retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 3.1% for the week ending March 17 to 8.633mbpd according to GasBuddy data. US gasoline cracks have been supported this week to the highest since August by tighter global supply risks, the switch to summer grade blend, rising seasonal demand and some seasonal weakness in stock levels.
• Distillates stocks showed an unexpected build last week due to a drop in implied demand combined with the higher production and despite a rise in exports. Average implied distillates demand on a four-week basis remains at the lower end of the previous five-year range after a decline on the week. Implied demand has been relatively unchanged since early February and is still 7.9% below the previous five-year average.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of 1.5mbbl but with a build of 0.3mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 1.6mbbl while distillates stocks built by 0.5mbbl.