EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Draws Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 0.13mbbls for the week ending June 28, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks last week built driven by the Gulf Coast and West Coast with production holding unchanged on the week and with a drop in refinery runs. Refinery utilisation unexpectedly fell for the second week to 92.2%. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to recovery some of those losses with an increase of 0.78% this week, according to a Bloomberg survey. US exports to Europe could be supported by cheaper WTI relative to North Sea BFOET grades, Sparta Commodities said, while lengthening US crude balances from Q3 will enable an increase in exports, FGE said.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 0.475mbbl and distillates to draw by 0.16mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week also showed an unexpected build driven by a drop in production to offset a drop in implied demand on the week. Imports and exports both fell from the previous week. Four week implied gasoline demand has stabilised after the gains seen during May but could be boosted by record levels of travel for the July 4 holiday according to AAA. U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a drop of 1.1% to 8.794mb/d for the week ending June 29 according to GasBuddy data.
• Distillates stocks fell in line with expectation last week with higher production and another dip in weekly implied demand despite higher exports. Four week implied distillates demand has eased lower in recent week to remain below all recent years except 2020.
• The API data yesterday showed a large crude draw of 9.2mbbl but a build of 0.4mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of 2.5mbbl and distillates stocks a draw of 0.7mbbl.