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EIA Projects Falling Diesel Prices Next Year

OIL PRODUCTS

US retail diesel prices are expected to fall next year from the highs seen in 2022 but continue to be relatively high as US distillate inventories remain at or near multi-year lows through the end of 2023 according to the EIA.

  • The EIA lowered its forecast for the average 2023 retail diesel price by 17 cents to $4.48/gal, falling 11% from the expected full-year 2022 average of $5.05/gal.
  • "Most of our forecast price decrease from 2022 to 2023 results from lower distillate refinery margins, which moderate beginning in early 2023 based on our expectation that distillate demand will decline in 2023 as production of distillate fuel increases," the EIA said.
  • "Although we expect the diesel refinery margin to decrease 19% in 2023 from 2022, we still expect it to be more than double 2021 levels,"
  • "Furthermore, the EU's ban on seaborne refined product imports from Russia beginning in February 2023 will keep supplies particularly tight in the Atlantic Basin,"

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