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EIA Raises Forecast for Russia Oil Output

OIL

The EIA short term energy report released yesterday raised the forecast for Russia’s oil production following signs of robust exports and despite an expected decline of 0.7mb/d in March output.

  • Russian output for 2023 was revised up from 9.873mb/d in the previous forecast to 10.29mb/d. Production in 2024 is forecast at 10.135mb/d vs 9.8mb/d in the Feb report. The previous forecast included a steep decline in the coming months resulting from the EU’s ban on seaborne petroleum products from Russia.
  • US crude oil production is estimated just slightly lower at 12.44mb/d in 2023 and 12.63mb/d in 2024. Output to grow annually in 2024 at an average rate of 190kb/d.
  • Global liquids output is forecast at 101.469mb/d in 2023 and 103.020mb/d in 2024.
  • EIA sees China as the main driver behind global oil demand growth this year as the country shifts away from its zero-COVID policy, a shift that will increase travel. Chinese liquids consumption is forecast at 15.86mb/d for 2023 and 16.25mb/d in 2024.
  • Global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5mb/d in 2023 from 2022 to 100.897m b/d and by an additional 1.8mb/d in 2024 to 102.686mb/d.

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