EIA See's Venezuela Adding 200kbd Crude Production by End of 2024

A lack of investment in Venezuela’s oil sector will result in sanctions relief only adding another 200,000 bpd to the country’s crude production by the end of 2024 according to the EIA.

• Shortages of diluent which Venezuela requires to blend with its heavy oil have resulted in export reductions recently – something sanctions relief will help to boost while flows of its oil are likely to be redirected from China towards the US.
• “Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are well-suited to take the kind of heavy crude oil Venezuela produces.” the EIA said, while those sorts of grades have been in tighter supply in the second half of this year because of OPEC+ cuts.
• The EIA expects near-term growth production in the country to come from Chevron’s joint ventures.
• Chevron’s earlier exemption, last December, has led to its share of production in the country to increase to 135,000 bpd in 2023. The EIA expects Chevron’s output in Venezuela to increase to 200,000 bpd by the end of 2024.
• Ventures by ENI, Repsol and Maurel and Prom could add another 50,000 bpd in the short term according to IPD Latin America – which should see Venezuelan production hit 900,000 bpd by the end of 2024 according to the EIA.
• Further Venezuelan production increases require significant investment, something foreign producers may be reluctant to provide if there are fears the Maduro government may not live up to its side of recent bargains and forces the US to retract sanctions relief.