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EIA Stocks Preview: Further Recovery in Cushing Inventories Expected

OIL

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to build by 0.70mbbls for the week ending 20th January according to a Bloomberg survey, following big builds over the previous couple of weeks. Low refinery utilisation, a dip in exports in early Jan and slightly higher production has contributed to the recent stock builds.
  • Exports should remain supported by a falling WTI-Brent spread which is down to around -6$/bbl from -4.5$/bbl earlier in Jan. The WTI-Brent spread has seen a gradual widening this month helped by the potential disruption to Russian oil flows to Europe and expectation of another build in Cushing. European demand is likely to stay strong especially with the upcoming EU ban on Russian product supply. High planned and unplanned refinery outages in the Midwest and Gulf Coast are assisting a recovery in Cushing stocks which are expected to build again this week. AlphaBBL data is suggesting a build of 4.8mbbls this week. Cushing stocks are recovering but were still over 25% below the five-year average last week.
  • Refinery utilization is expected to continue the recovery as refineries return following the outage due to the severe cold weather at the end of December. Utilisation is expected to increase 1.64% this week to 87% but that is still about 5% below the levels seen before the winter disruption.
  • Gasoline stocks are expected to show a build of +1.30mbbls and distillates a draw of -1.23mbbls. Product exports have been low due to low refinery output, but a recovery could be helped by falling transatlantic freight rates. A slight increase in gasoline implied demand could add to the expected draw in stock levels with refinery rates still recovering.
  • The API data released last night showed another large build in crude stocks of +3.38mbbls with +3.9mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of +0.62mbbls and distillates a draw of -1.9mbbls.
USEnergy BulletsCommodities
USEnergy BulletsCommodities

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