EIA US Oil Stocks Preview: Only Small Inventory Changes Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to remain almost unchanged for the week ending March 29, according to a Bloomberg survey. Data last week showed crude stocks built with a dip in exports and higher imports offsetting an increase in refinery runs. US production maintained at 13.1mbpd while refinery utilisation once again rose more than expected up to 88.7%. Cushing stocks rose largely in line with expectations showing the biggest weekly increase since Jan 2023. US production has already increased by 600kb/d so far this year compared to the same period last year but is expected to slow for the remainder of 2024 amid a continuously rising baseline and a plateau in output growth during Q2 according to Kpler. Widening WTI discounts for US delivery to Europe suggests Atlantic Basin weakness for its closest core market and doesn’t indicate an increase in crude exports into April according to Vortexa. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to increase again by 0.34% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 0.45mbbl and distillates to draw by 0.66mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week showed an unexpected build due to a drop in exports and slightly lower weekly implied demand. Four week average gasoline demand continues to rise following a trend from a low in mid January but at a slower rate than in previous weeks. Gasoline consumption has risen for six consecutive weeks up towards the key 9mbpd mark according to Bloomberg. US gasoline demand in the week to March 30 increased by 2.4% and stood 4.1% above the four-week average at 8.916mbpd according to GasBuddy.
• Distillates inventories last week fell driven by an increase in implied demand and assisted by a rise in exports. Four week implied distillates demand rose to the highest since December to return just within the previous five year range for the time of year, although still 5.3% below the seasonal normal.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of 2.29mbbl and a draw of 0.75mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 1.46mbbl while distillates stocks drew by 2.55mbbl.