Election: Political scientist Chris.........>

SWEDEN: Election: 

Political scientist Chris Hanretty, a professor at Royal Holloway University of

London, finds that the Swedish Democrats performance in the elections will do

little to alter the electoral arithmetic.

If the polls are taken at face value, assuming no history of bias or inaccuracy,

Hanretty estimates that the likelihood of SD being the largest party is just

0.1%. 

Re-evaluating the polls against their historical performance pushed the chance

of SD being the largest party up to 2%.

Hanretty told Market News that his subjective weighting put the probability of

the Sweden Democrats coming first in a 1 to 5% range.