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UK
UK Chancellor Hunt has earmarked the 6 March as the release date for the UK Budget. This is set to trigger increased speculation surrounding the timing of the next general election (which must be held no later than 28 January 2025, by law).
- There hasn’t been any notable movement in the odds surrounding the timing of the next election.
- Odds remain tilted towards a Q424 election (61% probability based on Smarkets calculations). Q124 chances stand at ~1%, Q224 chances stand at ~27% and Q324 chances stand at ~9% (all per Smarkets).
- A reminder that the Autumn fiscal statement fuelled speculation surrounding pre-election tax cuts.
- The latest round of local press reports re: pre-election fiscal loosening includes the scrapping of inheritance tax, more favourable deposit requirements for first time property buyers and various ideas surrounding the movement of income tax brackets/allowances.
- The ruling Conservative Party trails the opposition Labour Party by 19ppt in the latest POLITICO poll of polls metrics (43% vs. 24%). Any fiscal loosening will be viewed as a bid to generate support at the ballot box.
Fig. 1: Betting Market Implied Probability Of Date Of Next UK General Election By Quarter
Source: Smarkets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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