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Electricity and Fuels Drives May Inflation

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Spanish preliminary May HICP came in higher than expected on the yearly rate at 3.8% (vs 3.7% cons; 3.4% prior), but the sequential reading at +0.2% M/M (0.2% cons; 0.6% prior). The national CPI came in lower than expected at +3.6% Y/Y (vs 3.7% cons; 3.3% prior) and 0.3 % M/M (0.3% cons; 0.7% prior).

  • Core CPI came in-line with expectations at +3.0% Y/Y (vs +2.9% prior): the first acceleration after 8 consecutive downticks.
  • The headline rate was driven upward mainly by electricity as expected; analysts have noted this sequential increase in electricity prices ahead of the release. As well as fuels, whose prices decreased less than in the same month last year.
  • That said, the lack of detail in the report (particularly in services) makes it tough to draw any firm conclusions from a Eurozone-wide perspective.
  • For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.

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Spanish preliminary May HICP came in higher than expected on the yearly rate at 3.8% (vs 3.7% cons; 3.4% prior), but the sequential reading at +0.2% M/M (0.2% cons; 0.6% prior). The national CPI came in lower than expected at +3.6% Y/Y (vs 3.7% cons; 3.3% prior) and 0.3 % M/M (0.3% cons; 0.7% prior).

  • Core CPI came in-line with expectations at +3.0% Y/Y (vs +2.9% prior): the first acceleration after 8 consecutive downticks.
  • The headline rate was driven upward mainly by electricity as expected; analysts have noted this sequential increase in electricity prices ahead of the release. As well as fuels, whose prices decreased less than in the same month last year.
  • That said, the lack of detail in the report (particularly in services) makes it tough to draw any firm conclusions from a Eurozone-wide perspective.
  • For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.