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EM Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • HUNGARY: The NBH rate decision takes focus on Tuesday. Having completed the process of rate normalisation in September, the central bank are expected to moderate the pace of rate cuts at this meeting – though all options from no change to another 100bp cut are on the table.
  • TURKEY: The CBRT are expected to deliver another large-scale rate hike on Thursday with a 500bp increase to the one-week repo rate. However, with headline inflation running above 60% and expected to increase through year-end, real rates still remain deeply negative.
  • CHILE: The BCCh is widely expected to continue its easing cycle with another 75bp reference rate cut to 8.75% on Thursday. However, most recent comments regarding the significant weakening of the peso suggest the decision is not a forgone conclusion.
  • RUSSIA: No change to the CBR’s key rate is the likely outcome on Friday. Risks are skewed to the upside, however, given the weak ruble and hawkish bias of the central bank.
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