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EM Debt Market Having Its Worst Year Since 1994

EMERGING MARKETS
  • The constant positive surprises in inflation since the start of the year has forced central banks to maintain a hawkish stance by proceeding with aggressive hikes, leading to a sharp upward retracement in LT bond yields.
  • 10Y yields in the EM space reached multi-year highs last month before the strong consolidation in recent weeks, generating significant drawdowns in the bond indexes.
  • For instance, JP Morgan EM Bond Index (EMBI TR) shows that the drawdown in the EM debt market in 2022 (up to date) has been the worst since the index inception (1994).
  • Even though it is likely that EM LT bond yields reached a peak last month as the economic activity starts to decelerate sharply and inflationary pressures are likely to ease after this summer, volatility in the bond market could remain elevated if EM currencies remain under pressure in the short term.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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