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EMERGING MARKETS: Central Bank Decisions Due Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Thailand (Wed) - The BoT is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.50% at next week's meeting, although there is a chance of a cut. CPI pressures remain benign, while domestic growth could use more support. THB has also rallied very strongly in recent months. The central bank may want to keep policy space though heading into 2025.
  • Philippines (Wed) - The BSP should continue its easing cycle given recent downside inflation surprises. The BSP Governor has hinted 25bps rather 50bps policy shifts are probably what will be delivered.
  • Indonesia (Wed) - Much like BoT, the BI decision will be a close call. Current consensus sees rates on hold at 6.00%. What may tip the odds more towards a move is great policy space in terms of the BI outlook. We have seen USD/IDR rise recently, but we remain comfortably off recent highs, so that shouldn't be an impediment to lower policy settings.
  • Turkey (Thu) - The CBRT is likely to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, though further tightening may arrive through the implementation of additional macroprudential measures. Last month, the central bank removed the bias to further tightening from its policy statement, though a stronger-than-expected inflation reading since then has increased the risk of rates staying on hold in the coming months, opposed to prior expectations that an easing cycle could commence before year-end.
  • Chile (Thu) - The BCCh is expected to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut to 5.25% next week, following weaker-than-expected September CPI inflation data. In September, the monetary policy committee said that the policy rate would be reduced to its neutral level more quickly than previously thought, and recent survey data suggest that further gradual cuts over the coming meetings are widely expected.
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  • Thailand (Wed) - The BoT is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.50% at next week's meeting, although there is a chance of a cut. CPI pressures remain benign, while domestic growth could use more support. THB has also rallied very strongly in recent months. The central bank may want to keep policy space though heading into 2025.
  • Philippines (Wed) - The BSP should continue its easing cycle given recent downside inflation surprises. The BSP Governor has hinted 25bps rather 50bps policy shifts are probably what will be delivered.
  • Indonesia (Wed) - Much like BoT, the BI decision will be a close call. Current consensus sees rates on hold at 6.00%. What may tip the odds more towards a move is great policy space in terms of the BI outlook. We have seen USD/IDR rise recently, but we remain comfortably off recent highs, so that shouldn't be an impediment to lower policy settings.
  • Turkey (Thu) - The CBRT is likely to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, though further tightening may arrive through the implementation of additional macroprudential measures. Last month, the central bank removed the bias to further tightening from its policy statement, though a stronger-than-expected inflation reading since then has increased the risk of rates staying on hold in the coming months, opposed to prior expectations that an easing cycle could commence before year-end.
  • Chile (Thu) - The BCCh is expected to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut to 5.25% next week, following weaker-than-expected September CPI inflation data. In September, the monetary policy committee said that the policy rate would be reduced to its neutral level more quickly than previously thought, and recent survey data suggest that further gradual cuts over the coming meetings are widely expected.