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EMERGING MARKETS: Investment Banks Cut China Growth Forecasts

EMERGING MARKETS
  • CHINA: Investment banks are cutting their growth forecasts for China, believing Beijing risks undershooting its official target of about 5 per cent as confidence wanes in the world’s second-largest economy. Bank of America on Wednesday lowered its forecast to 4.8 per cent from 5 per cent and Canadian investment bank TD Securities cut to 4.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent. The moves followed a UBS cut last week and a series of similar reductions in recent months.
  • China is considering cutting interest rates on as much as $5.3 trillion of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system. Financial regulators have proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgages nationwide by a total of about 80 basis points, part of a package that includes an accelerated timeline for when mortgages become eligible for refinancing, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • EU: The latest data confirm the European Central Bank's "direction of travel" on interest rates and although not pre-committed on any rate path, policymakers would hope to be able to remove some restriction before becoming too restrictive, Executive Board member Piero Cipollone told Le Monde in an interview published Wednesday. Although upbeat that inflation will be at target sustainably by H2.
  • US: Vice President Kamala Harris will propose a tenfold-expansion of a tax deduction for new small businesses and announce a goal of 25 million new small-business applications in her first term if elected president, according to campaign officials. Harris, who has been trying to articulate her economic vision for the country, is expected to detail her plan in a speech in Portsmouth, N.H., on Wednesday.
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