Services Inflation Breaks Lower, Core Slightly Higher Than Expected

Eurozone April flash headline printed in line with consensus while core inflation came in a touch above on a rounded basis, in line with MNI's tracking based on the national data released earlier today and yesterday.

• Headline HICP was 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3/2.4% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.6% M/M (vs 0.6% cons; 0.8% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.38% Y/Y and 0.59% M/M.
• Core HICP came in a touch higher than expected at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.9% prior). This is a marginally bigger surprise than the headline number, given Spain Core CPI surprised to the downside, suggesting some of the countries not having reported an April core figure yet (such as France) might have printed relatively strongly. On an unrounded basis, core was 2.67% Y/Y and 0.71% M/M.
• Looking at the individual categories, services inflation finally broke lower in April, coming in at 3.7% Y/Y after 5 consecutive prints at 4.0%. Non-energy industrial goods saw its longer-term disinflation trend continuing and printed at 0.9% Y/Y (vs 1.1% prior), while energy prices saw their expected uptick materialize at -0.6% Y/Y (vs -1.8% prior).
• At a country level, annual HICP fell in 13 countries, and was the same or higher in the remaining 7.

MNI, Eurostat