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EMISSIONS: Emission Trade Slightly Higher on TTF But Firm Wind Limits Gains

EMISSIONS
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The December 2025 EUA is trading slightly higher this morning amid increases in TTF. However, wind is expected to be firm over the remainder of this week, especially in Germany, limiting the need for thermal output. Average temperatures in NW Europe are expected to be relatively in line with the norm over 1-15 January albeit with cooler temperatures amid the winter season. Looking ahead, German wind over 6-9 January will drop on the week, which may support EU ETS prices.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 72.39 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.9% at 48.755 EUR/MWh
  • The December 2025 EUA reached as high as €72.39/t CO2e at 08:09 GMT and has been as low as €71.90/t CO2e earlier in the session. The contract has averaged around €72.13/t CO2e so far today.
  • EUA auctions are still closed until 7 Jan 2025 – however, the market has probably already priced in the lack of supply.
  • TTF is extending gains towards the high of €49.55/MWh on Nov. 22 with the forecast of colder weather and as gas transit via Ukraine dips ahead of the expected halt.
  • Average temperatures in NW Europe are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 2 January before flipping below to between 0-2.6C over 4-5 January compared to the norm of around 3.9C. Temps will then rise to around 4.8-7.1C over 6-8 January.
  • Wind in Germany over 1-3 January is expected between 42-70% load factors, however, it will begin to fall and reach between 8-13% load factors over 6-9 January
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The December 2025 EUA is trading slightly higher this morning amid increases in TTF. However, wind is expected to be firm over the remainder of this week, especially in Germany, limiting the need for thermal output. Average temperatures in NW Europe are expected to be relatively in line with the norm over 1-15 January albeit with cooler temperatures amid the winter season. Looking ahead, German wind over 6-9 January will drop on the week, which may support EU ETS prices.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 72.39 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.9% at 48.755 EUR/MWh
  • The December 2025 EUA reached as high as €72.39/t CO2e at 08:09 GMT and has been as low as €71.90/t CO2e earlier in the session. The contract has averaged around €72.13/t CO2e so far today.
  • EUA auctions are still closed until 7 Jan 2025 – however, the market has probably already priced in the lack of supply.
  • TTF is extending gains towards the high of €49.55/MWh on Nov. 22 with the forecast of colder weather and as gas transit via Ukraine dips ahead of the expected halt.
  • Average temperatures in NW Europe are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 2 January before flipping below to between 0-2.6C over 4-5 January compared to the norm of around 3.9C. Temps will then rise to around 4.8-7.1C over 6-8 January.
  • Wind in Germany over 1-3 January is expected between 42-70% load factors, however, it will begin to fall and reach between 8-13% load factors over 6-9 January