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EMISSIONS: EU Carbon/Gas Correlation Strengthened in August

EMISSIONS

The correlation in price moves between European carbon allowances and gas prices strengthened and reached 90% in August according BNEF after signs of decoupling since late May/June. 

  • BNEF overall expects a slightly bullish outlook for EUA prices this month due to higher power demand and higher fossil-fuel output, elevated gas prices and the compliance deadline on 30 September.
  • On the supply side, 57mn allowances will be auctioned in September, up by 2.9mn from August, with 21% of free allowances to be handed out before the compliance deadline on end September.
  • Around 360mn more allowances are expected to be submitted before 30 September. 
  • Total allowance holdings after the compliance deadline in 2024 are still expected higher on the year, which was largely anticipated due to extra supply for the Innovation Fund and for the REPowerEU plan, while demand remained low due to sluggish industrial activity. 

     

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