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Empire Manufacturing Price Components Softest Since 2020/21

US DATA
  • Price components within the Empire Fed manufacturing survey were notably soft in December.
  • Current prices paid fell 17.5pts, the sharpest since mid-2012 outside of the 18.7pt drop in Apr’20 and whilst it didn’t fully feed through to selling prices, the -6.4pt drop was still sizeable.
  • At 33.0 and 18.8, it leaves prices paid and received at softest levels since Nov’20 and Jan’21 respectively.
  • As noted earlier, the survey can be volatile and service indicators are more in vogue with the Fed keenly watching non-housing service inflation, but it nevertheless offers further confirmation of the material improvement seen in supply chains to date.
  • Six-month ahead measures meanwhile suggest some scepticism over the latest improvement though. Both expected prices paid and received saw a solid decline on the month but this only reversed a large increase the month prior, leaving the diffusion indices a little above lows seen in the second half of last year (albeit still down significantly from the heights of pandemic disruption).

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