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Empire Mfg Index Bounces But 6-Month Ahead Close To 2001 Lows

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  • The NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey was stronger than expected in November, with current conditions bouncing from -9.1 to +4.5 (cons -6.0) to the highest since July.
  • If followed by other regional measures (Empire as usual the first Nov print) would start to imply some upside to the ISM mfg survey for once.
  • However, six-month ahead conditions soured, falling from -1.8 to -6.1, which barring the -6.2 in July is the weakest since 2001, through both early pandemic and 2009 lows.
  • Within price components, current period measures stepped further higher off recent lows whilst 6mths ahead were unchanged down slightly but don’t materially change the picture.


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  • The NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey was stronger than expected in November, with current conditions bouncing from -9.1 to +4.5 (cons -6.0) to the highest since July.
  • If followed by other regional measures (Empire as usual the first Nov print) would start to imply some upside to the ISM mfg survey for once.
  • However, six-month ahead conditions soured, falling from -1.8 to -6.1, which barring the -6.2 in July is the weakest since 2001, through both early pandemic and 2009 lows.
  • Within price components, current period measures stepped further higher off recent lows whilst 6mths ahead were unchanged down slightly but don’t materially change the picture.