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Empire Miss and Goolsbee Headlines Reverse Early Increase

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates dip with the Empire manufacturing miss and with the move supported by Fed VC nominee Goolsbee (currently ’23 voter) saying he doesn’t think the impact of bank turmoil on GDP is small and that his interest rate vote in May was a close call.
  • The move more than offsets the small uptick earlier on Bostic noting a hawkish bias, and after falling 2bps leaves June pricing below Friday’s close and Dec pricing back in line.
  • Cumulative changes from effective: +1bp Jun (-0.5bp from Fri), -7bp Jul (+0.5bp), -22.5bp Sep (unch), -46bp Nov (unch), -70bp Dec (unch) and -93bp Jan (unch).

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