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Employment Expected To Post Moderate Rise, Unemployment Rate Unchanged

AUSTRALIA DATA

September employment data is released today and is one of the key areas that the RBA is monitoring. Another moderate gain of 25k is expected after 33.5k last month, which should keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.5%. A result around this mark is unlikely to change the RBA’s 25bp per meeting stance.

  • Economists expect total employment to rise 25k, which is just above the 6-month average. The estimates have a fairly narrow dispersion this month with the lowest forecast at +10k and the highest +45k. So, there is a general expectation that there will be a moderate increase in employment.
  • The unemployment rate is broadly expected to remain at 3.5% but forecasts range from 3.3% to 3.6%. 8 economists expect it to fall to 3.4% and 1 to 3.3%, whereas only 2 expect it to rise to 3.6%.
  • The participation rate is also expected to be unchanged at 66.6% with a tight range of estimates at 66.6%-66.8%.
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