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Employment Expected To Rise Further In November, UE Rate Stable

AUSTRALIA DATA

Last month employment surprised to the upside rising 32.2k and the unemployment rate falling 0.1pp to 3.4%. Analysts expect a further 19k increase in jobs with the unemployment rate stable at 3.4%. If correct, this would be a further tightening of the already strained labour market. Recently there have been gains in full-time employment at the expense of part-time suggesting that employers are dealing with shortages by offering more hours.

  • The internet vacancies-to-unemployed ratio ticked up again in October and it remains elevated (see chart) suggesting that an imminent easing of the labour market is unlikely.
  • According to Bloomberg, forecasts for November employment are in quite a broad range from 0k to 45k with most estimates between 11k and 20k but there are three analysts expecting 30k.
  • The expectations for the unemployment rate are in a tight range of 3.3% to 3.5%. Quite a few analysts are expecting it to rise 0.1pp due to a predicted pickup in the participation rate to 66.6% from 66.5%.
Australia internet job vacancies % unemployed

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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