March 16, 2023 00:03 GMT
Employment Generally Expected To Rebound In February
Employment data for February print today and will be watched closely as it is one of the four pieces of data that RBA Governor Lowe mentioned that the Board will react to the collective signal from. It is expected to bounce back 50k after falling 11.5k in January due to special factors. About 0.1pp of the 0.2pp rise in the February unemployment rate was likely due to the large number of unemployed with another job to go to. The February unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.6%.
- Economists expect a 50k rebound in jobs in February but that hides a wide range of estimates. At the upper end is +100k and at the lower +4k with most forecasts in the +45k-60k range. CBA expects +45k, Westpac +50k, NAB +60k and ANZ +90k.
- The unemployment rate is projected to drop 0.1pp to 3.6% but estimates range from 3.5% to 3.8%. 5 economists expect an even lower rate of 3.5% while 7 expect it to stay at 3.7% and one even expects it to rise to 3.8%. Both NAB and Westpac are forecasting 3.6%, whereas ANZ expects 3.5% and CBA 3.7%.
- The participation rate is forecast to return to 66.6% from 66.5%. Some analysts are projecting it to stay at 66.5% while a few see a rise to 66.7%.