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Employment Report Doesn’t Materially Shake Out BAX Inversion

CANADA
  • BAX futures trade 4 ticks lower for the Jun’23 and ~10 ticks lower through to end-2024 with the move coming after the earlier employment report (capped by wage growth moderating) along with a sell-off in US rates.
  • In doing so, it trims some of the week’s rally but still leaves implied yields below Monday’s close (Jun’23 at 4.85%, Dec’23 4.035%) having been dragged lower by spillover from the JOLTS miss on Tue.
  • Ahead of the BoC on Wed, the BAM3/Z3 spread narrows 0.075 on the day to -0.545 but still points to an additional 10bps of cuts through the year since the end of last week.

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