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Employment-To-Population A Long Way From Fed Barkin's Benchmark

US DATA

Richmond Fed Pres Barkinsaid in May in reference to "substantial further progress" in meeting the Fed's full employment mandate that he was "closely tracking" the employment-to-population ratio.

  • In particular, he was looking for a return to pre-pandemic level (61.1% in Feb 2020) as a sign labor markets had recovered.
  • But as of today's employment report, that ratio has only edged higher 0.1pp in each of the last two months, and 0.6pp total in 2021 so far, to 58.0 in May.
  • At a 0.1pp pace it would take 2-3 years to get to 61+%.


Source: BLS, MNI

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