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US OUTLOOK/OPINION

SocGen Sees Big Unemp Rate Drop; JPM In Line On Job Gains

GBPUSD TECHS

Trend Direction Remains Down

FED

Reverse Repo Operation

COMMODITIES

Lumber Breaks Back Above Its 200DMA

BRAZIL

Precatorios Bill Comfortably Passes Senate Vote

-- Updated: March 5, 2018
           FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M3 (y/y
rate)      4.7  5.3  4.9  4.9  5.0  4.5  5.0   5.2   5.0   4.9   4.6   4.6
M3 (3-mth
moving
avg)       4.9  4.9  5.0  5.1  4.9  4.8  4.8   4.9   5.1   5.0   4.8   4.7
HICP
(y/y)      2.0  1.5  1.9  1.4  1.3  1.3  1.5   1.5   1.4   1.5   1.4   1.3  1.2p
SA
jobless
rate       9.5  9.5  9.3  9.2  9.1  9.0  9.0   8.9   8.8   8.7   8.7
Retail
Sales                                    -0.
(m/m)      0.6  0.6  0.0  0.5  0.3  0.0    2   1.0  -1.1   2.0  -1.0  -0.1
PPI (y/y)  4.5  3.9  4.3  3.4  2.4  2.0  2.5   2.9   2.5   2.8   2.2   1.5
Industry
Output(wd
a y/y)     1.4  2.1  1.2  4.1  2.9  3.7  3.9   3.3   3.7   3.2   5.2
SA Trade
Balance    18.  20.  18.  18.  21.  17.  20.
(E Bln)      0    8    4    3    3    5    9  23.8  19.2  22.0  23.8
SA
Current    33.  34.  23.  30.  27.  38.  43.
Account      8    1    4    5    0    0    5  42.7  30.3  35.0  29.9
Economic   108  108  109  109  111  111  111  113.  114.  114.  115.  114.
Morale      .0   .0   .7   .3   .1   .3   .9     1     1     6     3     7
Industry
Morale     1.3  1.3  2.6  2.8  4.5  4.5  5.0   6.7   8.0   8.1   8.8   8.8
Consumer   -6.  -5.  -3.  -3.  -1.  -1.  -1.
Morale       4    1    6    3    3    7    5  -1.2  -1.1   0.0   0.5   1.3
           55.  56.  56.  57.  57.  56.  57.
PMI (mfg)    4    2    7    0    4    6    4  58.1  58.5  60.1  60.6  59.6
           55.  56.  56.  56.  55.  55.  54.
PMI (svc)    5    0    4    3    4    4    7  55.8  55.0  56.2  56.6  58.0  57.1
                2Q15  3Q15  4Q15  1Q16  2Q16  3Q16  4Q16  1Q17  2Q17  3Q17  4Q17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
real GDP (y/y)   1.5   1.6   2.0   1.7   1.6   1.7   1.9   2.0   2.4   2.8  2.7p
Labour Costs
(y/y)            1.7   1.1   1.3   1.7   1.1   1.4   1.6   1.5   1.8   1.6
Employment
(q/q)            0.4   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.4   0.4
Employment
(y/y)            1.0   1.1   1.2   1.4   1.4   1.4   1.3   1.6   1.6   1.7
     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p: preliminary (flash) estimate
[TOPICS: MTABLE]