MNI BRIEF: Federal Reserve Withdraws From Climate Consortium

MNI BRIEF: Internat'l Finance Bodies Still Needed - BOE Bailey

MNI CORRECT: BOC Covid Guidance Unclear, Will Tie To Inflation

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 17

MNI BRIEF: NBS Notes Favourable Conditions For China CPI

MNI BRIEF: China's Q4 GDP Grow By 5.4%, Meeting 2024 Target

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B

MNI: US DEC INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.9%; CAP UTIL 77.6%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EFSF Synd "Upcoming", Slov Due Mon

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: End-2025 ECB Implied Rates Unwind Yesterday’s Hawkish Repricing

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures are +0.5 to +3.5 ticks through the blues, moving higher alongside core FI this morning. ECB-dated OIS price 120bps of easing through the end of next year, 3bps more dovish than yesterday’s close.

  • This morning, Bundesbank President Nagel told Focus Magazine that “in the first half of 2025, we may reach a ‘neutral’ level without risking an increase in inflation”.
  • This highlights that the median view in the Governing Council is firmly tilted towards more easing next year, as even the traditional hawks (e.g. Wunsch, Holzmann) have expressed a willingness to cut rates back towards 2-2.5%.
  • There are 100bps of easing priced through the next four ECB gatherings through June (i.e. consistent with 4x25bp cuts).
  • Today’s regional data calendar includes a selection of tier 2/national data. Most market focus will be on the US PCE report this afternoon. 
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jan-252.637-28.2
Mar-252.315-60.4
Apr-252.072-84.7
Jun-251.918-100.1
Jul-251.848-107.1
Sep-251.784-113.5
Oct-251.752-116.7
Dec-251.717-120.2
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 
148 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Euribor futures are +0.5 to +3.5 ticks through the blues, moving higher alongside core FI this morning. ECB-dated OIS price 120bps of easing through the end of next year, 3bps more dovish than yesterday’s close.

  • This morning, Bundesbank President Nagel told Focus Magazine that “in the first half of 2025, we may reach a ‘neutral’ level without risking an increase in inflation”.
  • This highlights that the median view in the Governing Council is firmly tilted towards more easing next year, as even the traditional hawks (e.g. Wunsch, Holzmann) have expressed a willingness to cut rates back towards 2-2.5%.
  • There are 100bps of easing priced through the next four ECB gatherings through June (i.e. consistent with 4x25bp cuts).
  • Today’s regional data calendar includes a selection of tier 2/national data. Most market focus will be on the US PCE report this afternoon. 
Meeting DateESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jan-252.637-28.2
Mar-252.315-60.4
Apr-252.072-84.7
Jun-251.918-100.1
Jul-251.848-107.1
Sep-251.784-113.5
Oct-251.752-116.7
Dec-251.717-120.2
Source: MNI/Bloomberg.