End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Eases Back

Crude prices have fallen sharply as wider economic concerns and future central bank policy and rate hikes create a more bearish demand outlook. The possible US shutdown is also adding further uncertainty to markets. Continued supply tightness provides some upside support.

• WTI NOV 23 down -2% at 91.8$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.64$/bbl at -3.44$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23-DEC 23 down -0.26$/bbl at 2.12$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.97$/bbl at 11.23$/bbl
• Crude inventories at Cushing fell for the seventh week with a draw of 943k this week taking stocks to the lowest since July 2022 at 21.96mbbls and close to operational low, below which oil is difficult to remove.
• The traditional US autumn refinery maintenance is shaping up to be heavier than expected, according to Bloomberg, as a greater number of refiners shut units for work.
• Russia is selling oil to India at almost $80/bbl, well above the G7 price cap of $60/bbl, traders said.
• Saudi Arabia supplied surprisingly high crude volumes to their buyers in the month of August, drawing down seaborne inventories (floating storage and in-transit volumes) by 1.5mbd on average.
• Bulgarian lawmakers on Thursday approved a motion to gradually end imports of Russian crude, with a halt to imports from October 2024, from end of 2024 previously scheduled according to Bloomberg.
• The North Sea combined BFOET exports are set to rise to 583kbpd in November, up from 565kbpd in October according to the latest loading schedules.
• North Sea Grane crude loadings are set at six cargoes of 600k bbl in November according to Bloomberg.
• Kazakhstan has shipped 500,000t of crude oil to Germany so far this year, of the total 900,000t planned for this year, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said.
• US shale executives are expecting record costs to increase according to the latest energy report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
• UBS maintains a year-end Brent price target of 95$/bbl and sees crude trading in a range of 90$/bbl to 100$/bbl in the months ahead.
• Rising crude oil prices toward $100/bbl could incentivize Saudi Arabia to revive output again, rather than risking a further price surge that damages the economy, Rapidan Energy President, Bob McNally said.
• RBC’s global head of commodity strategy Helema Croft highlights the lack of options the US administration has to battle high oil prices in a CNBC interview this week.