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End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Rising


Front month crude futures have regained ground during the trading day, supported by OPEC+ cut extensions and a weaker US dollar.

  • Brent NOV 23 up 1.1% at 90.91$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 23 up 1% at 87.72$/bbl
  • Brent is up around $4/b compared to Sep. 1, as OPEC+ cuts and larger than expected inventory draws in the US point towards a tightening market.
  • OPEC+ crude oil output in August rose by 120kbpd to 40.52mbpd as increases from Iran, Iraq and Nigeria more than offset further reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to the latest Platts survey.
  • OPEC+ may be forced to once again extend or deepen cuts in 2024 as supply balances remain elevated, Citi said in a note.
  • Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.9mbpd on the year in 2023, with demand growth forecast to slow in the last quarter of this year, JP Morgan said in a note.
  • The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET. The US oil rig count was unchanged last week at 512 after a drop of over 100 so far this year.
  • Saudi Arabia has drastically cut crude/condensate exports in August by more than 1mbpd vs July, and by 1.6mbd vs the average over 2022 and H1 2023 according to Vortexa.
  • ExxonMobil expects Guyana to reach a stable 1m b/d of oil production by 2028, up from zero in under 10 years, according to Platts.

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