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POWER: End of Day Power Summary: DE-FR Second-Week Ahead Diverge

POWER
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The German and French second-week ahead contracts have diverged, with sharp losses in Germany due to sharp falls in TTF and emissions amid a heavily dependent fossil-fuel gen mix compared to France. In contrast, higher demand compared to Germany is lifting the French equivalent as temperatures in Paris are set to flip below the norm from 8 Jan.

  • France Base Power Week 3 up 2.2% at 102.26 EUR/MWh
  • German Base Power Week 3 down 7.7% at 129.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 2.3% at 74.23 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 5.2% at 47.065 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal FEB 25 down 3.8% at 107.65 USD/MT
  • TTF has eased back from a high of €51/MWh last week as the previous Ukraine-transit-related rally pauses, aided by a recovery in LNG supply. However, prices remain supported by cold weather in NW Europe and strong storage withdrawals following the halt to Russian gas flows via Ukraine
  • EU ETS Dec25 prices have remained in red amid price falls in European gas and coal. But prices remain supported amid cooler weather and steady declines in European wind – which could spur fossil-fuel generation.
  • Rhine River water levels at the Maxau measuring point rose to 6.52m on Monday, the highest since 17 July and above the five-year maximum for this time of the year.
  • German new vehicle registrations declined by 1% on the year to 2.8mn vehicles, with average emissions per new registered vehicle rising on the year.
  • The UK has surpassed Germany as Europe’s largest EV market, with a 21% surge in 2024 registrations due to the UK’s sales mandate, while Germany saw a 25% decline amid the removal of purchase incentives.
  • The 500MW Greenlink power cable between the UK and Ireland is undergoing power flow testing, with bi-directional flow starting over the next two days, as the unit eyes commissioning for 26 January.
  • France’s EdF is simplifying the design of its SMRs and plans to finalise its reactor concept by mid-2026.
  • Company Renalfa IPP has acquired a 258MW solar project in northern Romania, with plans to add 1GWh of energy storage capacity.
  • Finland’s 1.6GW OL3 nuclear unit produced 9.69TWh of electricity in 2024, with the unit only being down for just over four days.
  • No liquidity was recorded on the Polish power exchange TGE future curve amid a public holiday today. However, the day ahead rebounded after a two-session decline amid a drop in wind output and an unplanned outage at some fossil-fuel-fired units.
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The German and French second-week ahead contracts have diverged, with sharp losses in Germany due to sharp falls in TTF and emissions amid a heavily dependent fossil-fuel gen mix compared to France. In contrast, higher demand compared to Germany is lifting the French equivalent as temperatures in Paris are set to flip below the norm from 8 Jan.

  • France Base Power Week 3 up 2.2% at 102.26 EUR/MWh
  • German Base Power Week 3 down 7.7% at 129.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 2.3% at 74.23 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 5.2% at 47.065 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal FEB 25 down 3.8% at 107.65 USD/MT
  • TTF has eased back from a high of €51/MWh last week as the previous Ukraine-transit-related rally pauses, aided by a recovery in LNG supply. However, prices remain supported by cold weather in NW Europe and strong storage withdrawals following the halt to Russian gas flows via Ukraine
  • EU ETS Dec25 prices have remained in red amid price falls in European gas and coal. But prices remain supported amid cooler weather and steady declines in European wind – which could spur fossil-fuel generation.
  • Rhine River water levels at the Maxau measuring point rose to 6.52m on Monday, the highest since 17 July and above the five-year maximum for this time of the year.
  • German new vehicle registrations declined by 1% on the year to 2.8mn vehicles, with average emissions per new registered vehicle rising on the year.
  • The UK has surpassed Germany as Europe’s largest EV market, with a 21% surge in 2024 registrations due to the UK’s sales mandate, while Germany saw a 25% decline amid the removal of purchase incentives.
  • The 500MW Greenlink power cable between the UK and Ireland is undergoing power flow testing, with bi-directional flow starting over the next two days, as the unit eyes commissioning for 26 January.
  • France’s EdF is simplifying the design of its SMRs and plans to finalise its reactor concept by mid-2026.
  • Company Renalfa IPP has acquired a 258MW solar project in northern Romania, with plans to add 1GWh of energy storage capacity.
  • Finland’s 1.6GW OL3 nuclear unit produced 9.69TWh of electricity in 2024, with the unit only being down for just over four days.
  • No liquidity was recorded on the Polish power exchange TGE future curve amid a public holiday today. However, the day ahead rebounded after a two-session decline amid a drop in wind output and an unplanned outage at some fossil-fuel-fired units.