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NATGAS: End To Russia-Ukraine Conflict Could Boost Russian Gas To Europe

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An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could see up to 35bcm of Russian pipeline gas return to Europe, but the market will otherwise likely remain tight until 2026-27, according to an Equinor executive cited by Montel. 

  • Of the four main pipelines that supplied Russian gas to Europe, the Yamal route via Poland is considered unlikely to resume operations due to political opposition from Poland, while the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is considered permanently damaged.
  • “Nord Stream 2 still needs a little bit of permitting but we think that will be solved,” Equinor Executive Irene Rummelhoff said. This route – via the Baltic Sea to Germany – could provide 8bcm/year to Europe.
  • “And we do expect that Ukraine will then go back to transiting Russian volumes,” she said, noting this could see a further 27bcm of gas from Russia.
  • This would be in addition to ongoing flows, amounting to around 14bcm/year, via the TurkStream pipeline, through Turkey and Bulgaria.
  • “Some kind of settlement [between Ukraine and Russia is] the big unknown” this year in terms of regional supply, she said.
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An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could see up to 35bcm of Russian pipeline gas return to Europe, but the market will otherwise likely remain tight until 2026-27, according to an Equinor executive cited by Montel. 

  • Of the four main pipelines that supplied Russian gas to Europe, the Yamal route via Poland is considered unlikely to resume operations due to political opposition from Poland, while the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is considered permanently damaged.
  • “Nord Stream 2 still needs a little bit of permitting but we think that will be solved,” Equinor Executive Irene Rummelhoff said. This route – via the Baltic Sea to Germany – could provide 8bcm/year to Europe.
  • “And we do expect that Ukraine will then go back to transiting Russian volumes,” she said, noting this could see a further 27bcm of gas from Russia.
  • This would be in addition to ongoing flows, amounting to around 14bcm/year, via the TurkStream pipeline, through Turkey and Bulgaria.
  • “Some kind of settlement [between Ukraine and Russia is] the big unknown” this year in terms of regional supply, she said.