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Ending A Mixed Session Notably Cheaper Despite Softer CPI Details

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a significantly mixed session, with a sharp rally on the CPI report before fully reversing the move and them plumbing new lows since March 10 after brief respite ahead of and only shortly after the solid 30Y auction.
  • Headline drivers have been relatively light but it follows a substantial 26bp increase in 2Y Gilt yields ahead strong labour data sent BoE rate expectations surging along with Russia mulling quitting the safe corridor grain deal for Black Sea ports, with clearance of key support for TY helping extend lows.
  • Coming on the eve of the FOMC decision, the end result is yields currently 10-11bps higher on the day for 2-7Y tenors, with the 2Y at the high end of its wide 4.49-4.704% range. 10s only modestly outperform with +9.3bps whilst the very long end more clearly outperforms at +5bps after the auction traded through with decent internals.
  • TYU3 at 112-24 off a low of 112-20+ easily cleared key support at 112-29+ to open 112-16 (76.4% retrace of Mar 2 – May 4 rally).
  • FOMC-dated OIS doesn’t shake off the post-CPI hit for near-term meetings with just +2bps for tomorrow and a cumulative +17bps for July (-5bps since the data) but the Dec’23 has continued to increase to 5.13% for +6bps on the day and just 15bp of cuts from the 5.28% terminal now seen in September.
  • Tomorrow sees PPI land with the usual implications for core PCE inflation, before of course the FOMC decision at 1400ET.
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