Energy Aspects Forecasts Oil Over $100/bbl This Year

Second half of the year crude balances look “insanely bullish” according to Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, with over a million barrels per day taken out of supply by the new Opec+ cuts.

• The total notional cut is about 1.65mn bpd including Russia’s commitment to extend its 500,000 bpd cuts.
• Energy Aspects expects Brent to be well over $100/bbl in H2 even prior to the cuts.
• The consultancy does not think the US has much “ammunition” to tackle Opec’s cuts, given how much of the SPR was used last year.
• Energy Aspects thinks a “decent chunk” of these cuts will be followed through and the US is staring at a summer where gasoline prices at the pump will continue to climb.
• US gasoline was already facing tightness because of US refinery outages ahead of today’s price drive in oil.