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Energy Base Effects Push PPI Higher, But Goods Pipeline Pressures Soften

SPAIN DATA
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The unwinding of negative energy base effects pushed Spanish PPI higher in June, though headline still remained in deflation at -3.5% Y/Y (vs a one tenth upwardly revised -4.5% prior).

  • On a 3m/3m NSA basis, which gives a better gauge of recent pipeline pressures than the Y/Y or M/M comparisons, headline PPI was -1.4% (vs -3.8% prior), while PPI ex-energy was 0.2% (vs 0.5% prior).
  • 3m/3m consumer goods PPI reached a new cycle low at 0.1% in July (vs 0.4% prior).
  • However, it is not obvious whether that is enough to drive further disinflation in Spanish core goods HICP going forward, with industry/retail expected prices metrics from the European Commission surveys having levelled out in recent months.
  • Spanish flash July HICP is due next Tuesday (consensus not yet available), alongside the preliminary Q2 GDP print.

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The unwinding of negative energy base effects pushed Spanish PPI higher in June, though headline still remained in deflation at -3.5% Y/Y (vs a one tenth upwardly revised -4.5% prior).

  • On a 3m/3m NSA basis, which gives a better gauge of recent pipeline pressures than the Y/Y or M/M comparisons, headline PPI was -1.4% (vs -3.8% prior), while PPI ex-energy was 0.2% (vs 0.5% prior).
  • 3m/3m consumer goods PPI reached a new cycle low at 0.1% in July (vs 0.4% prior).
  • However, it is not obvious whether that is enough to drive further disinflation in Spanish core goods HICP going forward, with industry/retail expected prices metrics from the European Commission surveys having levelled out in recent months.
  • Spanish flash July HICP is due next Tuesday (consensus not yet available), alongside the preliminary Q2 GDP print.