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Energy Drives Monthly Improvement In Trade Balance

CANADA DATA
  • Looking further into the trade data, the sizeable increase in the energy surplus in September (from C$11.4B to C$13.1B) is perhaps behind the lack of positive reaction in CAD to the overall merchandise surplus surprisingly widening from an upward revised C$0.95B to C$2B (cons C$1B).
  • Indeed, the non-energy deficit widened from -C$10.4B to -C$11.0B, although it’s still worth noting that on a three-month rolling basis the deficit of circa 7.4% GDP is down from 8.4% GDP in July and the recent peak of 10.0% in Sep’22.
  • With the services balance unchanged in September at a deficit of C$1.6B (3-mth average circa -1% GDP), it meant the first goods & services surplus since Dec’22 and before that Jun’22 (albeit still a deficit of -0.4% GDP in Q3).
  • Volumes data meanwhile point to a positive contribution from goods net exports in Q3, with exports rising 0.6% and imports slipping -0.4% in Q3 with widespread declines partly offset by strong imports of motor vehicles and parts.

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