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ENERGY: Peak Fossil Fuel Demand Could Help Boost Clean Energy Investment: IEA

ENERGY
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Fossil fuel demand is set to peak before 2030 at just less than 102mb/d before falling back to 2023 levels of 99mb/d by 2035, the IEA World Energy Outlook said. The demand peak will lead to a supply surplus and likely lower prices and could enable countries to dedicate more resources to clean energy.

  • Lower demand is driven by electric vehicle use from the transport sector as the world moves into an "age of electricity," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
  • IEA flagged a high uncertainty amid conflicts involving oil and gas-producing Middle East and Russia and elections in countries representing half of global energy demand in 2024.
  • The possibility of reduced supplies in the near term from disrupted Middle East oil flows highlighted the strain on the energy system and the need for investment to speed up the transition to "cleaner and more secure technologies."
  • Oil prices can continue between $75 and $80/bbl but only if OPEC+ members restrain output further.
  • An increase in LNG export capacity of around 270bcm between 2023 and 2030 will outpace a demand increased of 145bcm in the same period.
  • “The overhang in LNG capacity looks set to create a very competitive market at least until this is worked off, with prices in key importing regions averaging $6.5-8/mmBtu to 2035,” the report said.
  • Investment of around $2 trillion is expected in clean energy in 2024, almost double the amount invested in fossil fuels. A record high level of clean energy came online globally last year including more than 560GW of renewable power capacity.
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Fossil fuel demand is set to peak before 2030 at just less than 102mb/d before falling back to 2023 levels of 99mb/d by 2035, the IEA World Energy Outlook said. The demand peak will lead to a supply surplus and likely lower prices and could enable countries to dedicate more resources to clean energy.

  • Lower demand is driven by electric vehicle use from the transport sector as the world moves into an "age of electricity," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
  • IEA flagged a high uncertainty amid conflicts involving oil and gas-producing Middle East and Russia and elections in countries representing half of global energy demand in 2024.
  • The possibility of reduced supplies in the near term from disrupted Middle East oil flows highlighted the strain on the energy system and the need for investment to speed up the transition to "cleaner and more secure technologies."
  • Oil prices can continue between $75 and $80/bbl but only if OPEC+ members restrain output further.
  • An increase in LNG export capacity of around 270bcm between 2023 and 2030 will outpace a demand increased of 145bcm in the same period.
  • “The overhang in LNG capacity looks set to create a very competitive market at least until this is worked off, with prices in key importing regions averaging $6.5-8/mmBtu to 2035,” the report said.
  • Investment of around $2 trillion is expected in clean energy in 2024, almost double the amount invested in fossil fuels. A record high level of clean energy came online globally last year including more than 560GW of renewable power capacity.