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ENERGY SECTOR: Eni Q3 Soft; FY Guidance Cut On Lower Price Forecasts

ENERGY SECTOR
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Mixed results with production in line but op income behind against the backdrop of weaker prices. FY guidance lowered on the pricing outlook, and buybacks were increased though this comes against the recent news of the KKR stake in Enilive.

  • Hydrocarbon production +2% YoY (+0.3% vs. BBG consensus).
  • Op profit -19% YoY (-3.3% vs. cons) on the back of weaker Brent prices and a stronger Euro. EBIT -14% YoY with E&P -5%, Global Gas & LNG +65% and Enilive & Plenitude -32% (both typ less than one-tenth of EBIT).
  • Net CFO -15% with organic CapEx +4% for FCF of EUR 1.1bn from EUR 1.4bn in Q323.
  • Leverage before leases of 22% from 22% in Q224 and 15% in Q323; “expected to be towards the lower end of a possible 15%-20% range” at year-end.
  • “The 2024 buyback is now expected to be €2 bln, a 25% increase on the previous guidance of €1.6 bln and more than 80% higher than the original plan for the year.”
  • FY guidance cut on revised Brent scenario; E&P production seen at 1.7mboepd (from 1.69-1.71mboepd; in line with consensus) at an average Brent price of USD 83/bbl (from USD 86/bbl), EBIT seen at EUR 14bn (from around EUR 15bn) and adj-CFFO at EUR 13.5bn (from over EUR 14bn).
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Mixed results with production in line but op income behind against the backdrop of weaker prices. FY guidance lowered on the pricing outlook, and buybacks were increased though this comes against the recent news of the KKR stake in Enilive.

  • Hydrocarbon production +2% YoY (+0.3% vs. BBG consensus).
  • Op profit -19% YoY (-3.3% vs. cons) on the back of weaker Brent prices and a stronger Euro. EBIT -14% YoY with E&P -5%, Global Gas & LNG +65% and Enilive & Plenitude -32% (both typ less than one-tenth of EBIT).
  • Net CFO -15% with organic CapEx +4% for FCF of EUR 1.1bn from EUR 1.4bn in Q323.
  • Leverage before leases of 22% from 22% in Q224 and 15% in Q323; “expected to be towards the lower end of a possible 15%-20% range” at year-end.
  • “The 2024 buyback is now expected to be €2 bln, a 25% increase on the previous guidance of €1.6 bln and more than 80% higher than the original plan for the year.”
  • FY guidance cut on revised Brent scenario; E&P production seen at 1.7mboepd (from 1.69-1.71mboepd; in line with consensus) at an average Brent price of USD 83/bbl (from USD 86/bbl), EBIT seen at EUR 14bn (from around EUR 15bn) and adj-CFFO at EUR 13.5bn (from over EUR 14bn).